Just as we were all settling into the idea that former Governor Jeanne Shaheen's victory in the Senate race this fall was a given, along comes a Granite State poll with some sobering news:
Jeanne Shaheen (D): 46
John Sununu (R, inc): 42
(MoE: ±4.3%)
Why is this happening? Has Shaheen not been running enough advertisements? Have donors been loath to give money to Shaheen's campaign, assuming that this would be a repeat of Casey-Santorum '06, already in the bag? I worry that these numbers may reflect a complacency in the Democratic base, one that could come back to haunt us on Election Day, and not just in New Hampshire. Your thoughts?
UPDATE (James L.): I think the answer to the question that CC poses in the title is “no”. I think it’s important to take a look at Miss Laura’s analysis of UNH’s shoddy methodology, including their wildly gyrating sample — one that became 1.6% less Democratic and 3.9% more Republican since April. Shaheen is the only candidate in this race who has gone up on the airwaves with advertisements, and her fundraising has been stellar.
It’s happening because this is a horrible pollster, that’s why. This poll is the poster child for bizarre outlier polls everywhere.
Don’t worry too much. One poll doesn’t make a trend. I remember everybody getting in a panic over that ARG that showed Sununu ahead then the very next poll was back to a huge Shaheen lead. Their last out just yesterday showed a more than 20 point lead. Yes, ARG aren’t the greatest pollsters in the world but they are based in NH and surely even they can’t be wrong by that much. It isn’t quite in the bag yet but even if this poll is correct he is still behind and way under 50%. The correct rating is Lean D and I expect her to win quite comfortably in the end.
And I want to make one other point. It matters a lot less if Jeanne Shaheen gets a lousy poll than if Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes do. Shaheen’s race gets polled every so often by other outfits, so if she gets screwed by UNH, there’s going to be a Rasmussen poll or something to correct the record a little soon.
Shea-Porter and Hodes won’t be the subjects of any other public polling for a few more months, and having a lousy public poll like this can really mess with their fundraising for a while. Each of them has at least once this cycle been hit with a truly ridiculous fluctuation on the in-district sample (this time it’s Hodes, last time it was Shea-Porter). That’s truly crappy for them.
Released yesterday, has Shaheen up by 20+ points
Suck. The one thing about the UNH poll is that the previous poll had McCain leading while this one has Obama in front, so I don’t think you can put it all on party ID.
I’m guessing the results are probably somewhere between UNH and ARG, a 10-15 pt. lead for Shaheen sounds right.
I’ve long believed that this race could tighten because Sununu is a helluva campaigner and he’s still got a lot of money and he won’t go down without a fight.
I will not comment on the veracity of the UNH or ARG polls – hard to argue with MissLaura. Instead I want to point to the threat the Shaheen campaign is facing, which should discourage complacency when watching our race: Americans for Job Security (AJS) and similar Republican front groups.
AJS is dumping hundreds of thousands of dollars into NH to attack Governor Shaheen, this money is the gun turret atop John Sununu’s $5.2 million cash on hand tank (to Shaheen’s $1.2m).
Something to please keep in mind when you are feeling complacent.
Jonathan Schleifer
Jeanne Shaheen for Senate
PS – We have a petition to demand that AJS disclose their donors – please sign it and bring some light to this group: http://jeanneshaheen.org/ajs
http://dccc.org/blog/archives/…
Last time, IIRC, Shaheen also had a big early lead and Sununu closed strongly. After the fact, people criticized Shaheen for playing things too conservatively. I never though this would end up a 10 or 15 point race for a bunch of reasons:
1) Oil prices. I vividly remember parts of nice big, old houses in Manchester being boardsed up in the winter of 1980 when the state’s economy was doing pretty good. Those prices at the pump have a double kick in northern New England.
2) Taxes. Nobody in the country is more tax-phobic than New Hasmpshireites. As the President from West Wing said the state motto could be expanded to read “Live Free or Die or as Cheap as You Can.”
3) Judd Gregg. Gregg has Sununu’s back in a way. Think Sununu is too conservative? He’s more moderate than Gregg. Yeah, that’s not saying much and the spread isn’t huge but …
4) The war chest (and now more).
5) Two for one. Look for McCain and Sununu to fight together. This is one eastern state McCain thinks he can win.
Yes, there was phone jamming but NH is still a pretty fair election environment with a high turnout. Make the case and we win but make the case. And yes, it will be a fight.
2002. We thought we had it and Sununu take it. Of course strong Republican year + phone jamming. But in 1996 also had troglodyte Republican Bob Smith come back after the race was initially called for Swett.
Can’t take anything for granted. Hopefully the earlier polls are correct and we can win this one big.